Key Points:
- A majority of Americans surveyed believe there should be an age cap on elected officials, including the President of the United States.
- Scientists predict that Joe Biden and Donald Trump will live through a second term in office.
- Age is not a good determinant of whether someone is fit to be president.
With concerns over cognitive decline and early signs of dementia, some have wondered whether Joe Biden, 81, and Donald Trump, 77, are too old to hold presidential office. Meanwhile, scientists argue that momentary lapses in memory, especially under stress, are by no means a cause for worry.
Still, a whopping 79% of Americans favor a maximum age limit for elected officials like the President, according to a Pew Research survey. Such a limit would likely require amending the constitution and may prove difficult, as attempts have already failed in countries like Indonesia. Indonesia has a different story, though, and for human rights activists, placing an age cap on presidential candidates is a good way to stave off alleged torturers from relinquishing power.
In the United States, there’s less disquiet over human rights violations than for falling over, fumbling words, and forgetting names. These violations of presidential demeanor fall far from the issues challenged in Indonesia but such faux pas, perhaps due to their effortless-to-absorb nature, seem to be what people remember. There is no doubt that eloquent speech, graceful conduct, and confident disposition win votes. However, it would be unwise to follow a leader based on these characteristics alone.
Predicting Biden and Trump’s Lifespan and Healthspan
While Joe Biden is the oldest president in U.S. history, Donald Trump is a close second. This has left many to wonder if either 2024 presidential candidate, particularly Biden, can make it through a second term. To address this skepticism, longevity researchers have used known mortality risk factors to predict how long each candidate will live.
The researchers estimated that Biden would have a 87.4-year lifespan and Trump an 86.2-year lifespan, suggesting both could live through another term. Although, Biden has a 66% chance of surviving to 85 while Trump a 60% chance. These estimates may be reflective of good genes as both Biden and Trump’s parents lived into their 80s and 90s. Trump’s lower lifespan estimate is influenced by lifestyle factors like poor diet and lack of exercise.
When it comes to healthspan — the number of years lived without impairments or disease — the longevity researchers predicted that both Biden and Trump would have another 10 years. With the study’s draft being published in 2020, this would mean that both candidates should remain healthy through a second term. This includes being free of cognitive impairment, which many have concerns about, especially for Biden. The researchers concluded,
“Since the personal physicians of each candidate did not see the need for a detailed cognitive assessment, this represents suggestive evidence that such issues are not present. Whether candidates for the office or sitting presidents should be required or encouraged to voluntarily submit themselves to be evaluated for comprehensive cognitive functioning assessments is a subject for public debate.”
This brings up the question of whether individuals should be comprehensively tested on their cognitive abilities to qualify for presidential candidacy. A detailed cognitive functioning assessment may be a better method for choosing who’s fit for presidency than choosing an arbitrary age cut-off. Still, epidemiologist and biostatistician Jay Olshansky would disagree, saying,
“I’m waiting for the cartoon to come out with two presidential candidates on treadmills – connected to every conceivable device. This is what running for president will be, a measure of just cognitive functioning and physical functioning and no longer about all the issues that everyone’s interested in.”
Should There Be an Age Limit to Assuming Presidential Office?
With some individuals “looking good for their age,” it should come as no surprise that the latest research helps to confirm that we all age at different rates. For example, a 93-year-old man named Richard Morgan has the fitness level of a 30-year-old. Scientists have even coined the term “superagers” for individuals over 80 with the mental capacity of individuals half their age. While not confirmed, researchers have suggested that Biden and Trump are indeed superagers.
On the other hand, while it may be risky to assume that someone is less mentally capable of leading based on their age alone, growing up during a different era implies years of accumulated knowledge and beliefs. With exponential technological growth comes social changes that may require unlearning the past. As cultural norms evolve, old models of thinking may not align with current models of thinking.
With that being said, the President of the United States is an elected official who is meant to be evaluated based on the content of their words. Whether these words are true is another discussion, but many presidential candidates have a track record. With less attention focused on age, more attention can be focused on how a president addresses issues that affect people’s lives. The voting process is meant to determine who is fit for the presidency, not age.
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