Key Points:
- Aging is a software design flaw that can be cured.
- The average human life expectancy is estimated to be 1,200 years.
- The greatest challenge with a longer lifespan is cultural and intellectual stagnation.
Dr. João Pedro de Magalhães is the Chair of Molecular Biogerontology at the University of Birmingham in England where he leads the Genomics of Aging and Rejuvenation Lab. His website, senescence.info is an information and educational resource that has been featured in prominent peer-reviewed journals such as Science and Aging Cell. In one of his senescent.io articles, Immortality and Society, Dr. de Magalhães describes what it would be like if aging were cured.
Dr. de Magalhães is Sure Aging Can be Cured
Why Do We Age?
The answer to this question is not yet agreed upon among scientists. However, de Magalhães has published his own theory proposing that aging is a software design flaw. Based on this theory, our DNA is like hardware that runs a developmental software program. This software program directs our cells to mature into adult human beings capable of reproducing.
However, following reproductive age, the software program fails to support life. That is, living past reproductive age isn’t part of the program. It follows that after reproductive age, the program becomes detrimental to life and causes the slow and progressive deterioration of the body that we call aging. Essentially, the “software program” is flawed because it is meant for development and reproduction and not longevity.
To support his theory, de Magalhães points out that many of the current interventions that slow the aging process in animals also retard their growth and development. In other words, these interventions slow down the developmental software program.
Curing Aging
Curing aging is not the same as slowing the software program, but is more akin to hacking and reprogramming the software. Dr. de Magalhães says that he is sure aging can be cured and there are two possibilities.
- Possibility 1: Making changes to our DNA that are inherited across generations. This means newborns would be free from aging.
- Possibility 2: Using a combination of therapies to stop the aging process as adults.
Additionally, de Magalhães says we could live in a society where both possibilities are necessary. He illustrates a scenario whereby aging is halted by making changes to our DNA (Possibility 1), but some age-related diseases still exist and need to be treated with therapies (Possibility 2). In this combination scenario, aging will still be cured.
Average Life Expectancy After Curing Aging
Assuming aging and all age-related diseases are cured, de Magalhães calculates the average human lifespan (t0.5) with the equation, t0.5 = -ln 0.5/IMR.
Here, the initial mortality rate (IMR) is the number of deaths per 100,000 people each year. Dr. de Magalhães says that for a typical industrialized nation, the IMR would be 0.0005/year. Solving the equation using this IMR gives t0.5 = 1,200 years.
A few years after making this calculation, in an interview with the Scientific American, de Magalhães said,
“I actually did some calculations years ago and found that if we could “cure” human aging, average human life span would be more than 1,000 years. Maximum life span, barring accidents and violent death, could be as long as 20,000 years. This may sound like a lot, but some species can already live hundreds of years—and in some cases thousands of years [such as the hexactinellid sponge and the Great Basin bristlecone pine]. If we could redesign our biology to eliminate cancer and evade the detrimental actions of our genetic software program, the health benefits would be mind-boggling.”
Society After Curing Aging
Prison Sentences, Retirement, and Vacation Time
Upon making his calculation for a 1,200-year human lifespan, Dr. de Magalhães goes on to predict the challenges this would place on society. He says that one thing in need of change would be prison sentences — they would probably have to be longer. This would then place additional costs on the state.
Similarly, the retirement age would have to be changed or abolished completely. Additionally, vacation times would possibly have to be extended by several years or so. However, since much of the healthcare costs of today go towards the aging population, a society without aging may benefit from the reduction in healthcare costs.
Overpopulation and Cultural Stagnation
Perhaps the biggest and most obvious challenge with a 1,200-year life expectancy is overpopulation. Without a consistent death rate, the population of the world would skyrocket. A perceivable benefit to such a large population could be a larger pool of intellectual talent to solve this problem, such as further advancements in technology that increase food production.
However, Dr. de Magalhães says for him overpopulation would not be the greatest challenge. Instead, the greatest challenge would be cultural and intellectual stagnation. He quotes Nobel prize-winning physicist Max Plank:
“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with the idea from the beginning.”
The sentiment of Max Plank is agreed upon with business magnate Elon Musk who said:
“I don’t think we should try to have people live for a really long time. That it would cause asphyxiation of society because the truth is, most people don’t change their mind. They just die. So if they don’t die, we will be stuck with old ideas and society wouldn’t advance.”
Dr. de Magalhães adds,
“It is therefore my opinion that an end of aging in a near future would not be helpful for humankind’s culture. There is still too much prejudice, ignorance and attachment in the world for this to become a generation that is eternal.”
The longevity researcher continues by saying, despite these challenges, curing aging will end the suffering of many people, including the ones he loves. Therefore pursuing a cure for aging is still a fruitful endeavor.
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